Independent - Niezależny Portal Finansowy Ostatnie artykuły Wed, 18 Jul 2018 14:55:40 +0200 <![CDATA[2016 Forecast - Checked!]]> Anno Domini 2016 is behind us. It is the high time to see which Independent Trader predictions were on point and which ones were off and why. As always, you can find my prediction from a year ago in italics. Below every single one there is a follow-up comment.


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<![CDATA[Bond market crash – an accident or a new trend?]]> Media's focus is now on the losing spree of gold which coincided with Donald Trump's victory. Meanwhile no attention is paid to an elephant in the room – bond market crash. An elephant because the value of the global bond market is higher than the capitalisation of all equity markets. If we talk about the value, here we can find plenty of it.

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<![CDATA[War on cash gains fresh impetus]]> Last weeks showed there is no doubt what priorities financial elite has. One country recently made a move which resulted in terrible consequences. Indian government decided to revoke high-value notes as a legal tender.

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<![CDATA[The world of gold is about to change]]> When you look at the price of gold in 2016 you see that the level we have today 1130 USD/oz is only a little bit higher than January’s 1050 USD/oz. Jumping to conclusions we may say that this year was very calm but the reality is far from it.

 An analysis based primarily on the price of metal is misleading. Last 12 months were chaotic and official price of gold seems to obscure the shift this market is experiencing.

]]> Thu, 22 Dec 2016 18:36:00 +0100
<![CDATA[Independent Trader News – summary of December 2016, part 1]]> Ten years of silver market manipulation. Deutsche Bank shows evidence.

The investigation of silver market manipulation is underway and Deutsche Bank shared their insider knowledge of an artificial undercutting of the price of silver. This is why DB will be hit with a penalty of only 38 million USD. If DB was not so cooperative this fine could have additional zeroes at the end.

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<![CDATA[The Prophecy of Ben Bernanke]]> Recently while watching Mike Maloney I saw him picking up on Ben Bernanke’s talk from 2002. Fourteen years in the world of finance is an era but Bernanke’s words are still actual and important. With hindsight, it was an announcement of what governments and central banks were about to do.

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<![CDATA[Will FED initiate a (mini)crisis?]]> On paper, central banks are responsible for two things. They decide about the supply of currency and set interest rates. If the economy is healthy the velocity of money circulation grows higher creating inflation. Raising interest rates help to cool off the overheating economy. On the other hand, if the economy is heading for a recession central banks lower interest rates to make available to society credit cheaper and stimulate spending. This helps the economy get up from its knees. This is the theory.

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<![CDATA[FANG - stocks the street buys]]> The key role of four companies from the title of this article (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google) starts to resemble situation from the end of the '60s and beginning of the ‘70s. This is when American market was stormed by fashionable firms like Nifty Fifty. Investors were convinced about the limitless potential of several companies and it led to very painful crashes. How will the history end this time?

]]> Tue, 29 Nov 2016 03:30:00 +0100
<![CDATA[How to conjure results better than expected?]]> Until 29th October 113 companies of S&P 500 have already published their financial reports for the last quarter. A big number of them – 76% - presented better than expected performance. “Exceeded expectations” sounds very positive and is already a buzzword in the world of investment but we should take a look at it in the context of American reality.

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<![CDATA[How bankers created National Socialism – a history lesson]]> Nazism would not have played a significant role in the XXth century without the bankers from New York and London. Financial elites executed the plan perfectly by taking over financial sector in Germany and consequentially political control over Central Europe.

]]> Mon, 14 Nov 2016 02:14:00 +0100
<![CDATA[President Trump - what does it mean for you?]]> Gigantic funds from both military and financial sectors. Unanimous cooperation of the mainstream media. Polls signalling only one possible result of this election. All of the above did not help Hillary Clinton to win. The new President of the United States is Donald Trump.

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<![CDATA[Clinton v Trump – the long-awaited verdict]]> Only in few days, Americans will choose their new president. In my opinion, this election is one of the most important events in decades. Since Kennedy, you can see that the choice of candidates represented only the interests of the establishment. This time it may be different due to Trump’s promises to limit the dominance of the wealthiest 0.01% part of society. I do not believe he is the ‘saviour’ of the middle-class as he pretends to be. It is rather strategic of him to use growing discontent in the ever divided society. The drastic difference between 90% of American workers and top bracket is the main reason for dissatisfaction.

]]> Mon, 07 Nov 2016 18:28:00 +0100
<![CDATA[Independent Trader News – summary of October 2016, part 2]]> Romania removed over hundred taxes and charges

Only two weeks and both houses of Romanian Parliament agreed on a regulation to remove 102 taxpayer burdens (charges and taxes). Changes were accepted by leaders of all parties in the Parliament. Scrapped taxes were only waste of both time and money for our citizens - Liviu Dragnea, head of PSD party commented. With the intention to put more money in the pockets of the middle-class Romanian government started a fight with bureaucracy.

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<![CDATA[Game of Central Banks]]> During the last 40 years, central banks have gained power they previously could only fantasize about. They were given full control over the currency supply and interest rates. These are the tools to plan booms and depressions. Thanks to such a great authority banks could create economic bubbles and their inevitable bursts. The result is one of the biggest capital migration in history from the middle class to 1% advantaged with access to particular data in advance.

]]> Sun, 30 Oct 2016 20:26:00 +0100
<![CDATA[Independent Trader News – summary of October 2016, part 1]]> The ECB embarrassment. Borrowing 18 EUR generates only 1 EUR of GDP growth.

Independently from the effectivity of printing machines the ECB owns, the Eurozone is still in a very bad economic condition. According to the ECB to create 1 EUR of GDP growth the economy has to borrow another 18.5 EUR through QE or to use fashionable buzzword – ‘stimulus’.

This year the ECB has printed already 600 bn EUR creating growth of 31 bn EUR. For reference, the amount of Greek debt is equal to 360 bn EUR.

]]> Tue, 25 Oct 2016 21:48:00 +0200
<![CDATA[Goldman Sachs – a repository of corrupted politicians]]> It may seem like all the bankers and politicians have a very short memory as they are trying to continuously profit without changing their modus operandi. One of the methods used is to offer politicians cushy positions for their cooperation with financial circles. This setup benefits both sides and confirms that the government is not what decides about the future of a country.

]]> Thu, 20 Oct 2016 21:35:00 +0200
<![CDATA[Groupthink - a guarantee of a loss]]> A few years ago I read a very interesting report. It alleged that the average memory of non-professional is less than 2 years back. In other words, if you are one of these people who encouraged by fashion or advertised recommendation made a mistake ones by investing in overpriced assets (and lost some money on the way) there is a high probability you are going to repeat your mistakes.

]]> Sun, 16 Oct 2016 15:29:00 +0200
<![CDATA[Deutsche Bank – who can save the giant?]]> Deutsche Bank is again in the centre of attention. This time due to the Department of Justice penalty. The stock price of the German giant has now fallen to the levels last seen in the '80s . Investors started to question DB's future, Will DB fail just like Lehman Brothers?

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<![CDATA[Silver – my favourite asset]]> Many of you already know that silver has the biggest share of my portfolio. The amount of written material about gold is immense and this is why investors have decent knowledge about it. When we talk about silver, though, there are some myths giving people wrong assumptions. It is time to recap and refresh what we know about silver.

]]> Thu, 06 Oct 2016 22:57:00 +0200
<![CDATA[DIY: How to destabilise a continent?]]> The immigration crisis hit Europe dozen months ago was dominated by a strong unanimous voice of European officials and institutions. The debate was driven by sympathy and need to accommodate fleeing asylum seekers. This narrative was not broken by any threats posed by so massive crowd. Crimes and even terrorist attacks were not enough to change the policy of the Western Europe.

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