To fully understand what is happening in Ukraine we need to go back in time. Since the end of Second World War globe was politically divided in two hostile camps. On one hand we had the USA and Western Europe forming common trade bloc and the NATO alliance. On the other hand we had the USSR.
In 1991, following dissolution of USSR former members of the Warsaw Pact (East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary) and Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were left out of direct control of neither newly emerged Russian Federation nor NATO. So called ‘buffer zone’ was established. NATO and the US hegemony was heartened even more when Boris Yeltsin organized military coup and Russian economy was left in shambles. The bipolar world lost one its contenders.
In years to come ‘west’ continued to advance its area of control onto Baltic States – former members of the Warsaw Pact. It took Yeltsin 8 years of economic agony to abdicate. Vladimir Putin took over as interim President and later elected to lead Russian Federation.
First decade of XXI century is simply more of the NATO expansion. In addition to this the EU also started penetrating former soviet block. The only buffer between NATO and Russia is now Belarus and Ukraine. Worth mentioning is that NATO was created as a defensive organisation against possible aggression of USSR. Since intervention in Serbia, NATO can be described as having offensive paradigm with a role of international police without being subjected to the United Nations control.
Here is the list of some of the NATO’s intervention:
- Afghanistan- Manhunt for one bearded guy took 13 years. For those questioning official story I recommend researching geopolitical importance of Afghanistan- especially location and abundance of resources. It is also interesting to ask from where 90% of opiates production is coming from and who is reaping fruits of that trade.
- Iraq- Since there was no weapons of mass destruction NATO forces are happy that at least they found some oil. After 11 years.
- Libya- Support for the freedom fighters maybe is noble but why 95% of them are not from Libya? Curiosity begs to ask where is the famous Kaddafi’s gold on which he wanted to base his golden dinar on and who gets the cut from Libyan oil since great-polling dictator is dead.
- Mali- NATO is defending the regime against terrorists… or freedom fighters (hard to keep up these days). Although, over 90% of citizens of NATO members simply cannot point Mali on the map.
- Syria- There is no official mission of NATO. Mere training of freedom fighters, similar (or the same) people whose it is fighting against in Afghanistan or Iraq.
- On purpose missions in Somalia, Jemen and Pakistan are omitted as only US military is engaged there without NATO support.
Two maps for comparison:
1.Division of powers in Europe in 1988
2.Today’s division of powers.
From military standpoint Ukraine is of paramount importance for both Russia and NATO (USA). Right now country is sitting in between two camps. Western, poorer but more populated half wants to join the EU and get access to attractive job market. East, boasting most industry and vast resources is definitely pro-russian. Neutral status of Ukraine is crucial for keeping already disrupted balance of powers in Europe just a bit more stable.
In the event of Ukraine being pushed towards western politicians’ hands, further placement of ballistic missiles will be seen as well as other parts of anti-missile defense shield near Russian border. Few years back it was claimed by the US and Polish government that Iran is the main threat the shield is protecting from. Now it is clear who the main target of this defensive system is.
Let us think about headlines and media frenzy in the event of Russia toppling governments in Cuba, Dominicana or make a move in Quebec or Ontario and install there any military installation.
Coming back to Ukraine. Yanukovych was democratically elected president. The coup’s cost at least 5 bn USD, and the US government acknowledges that. Estonian minister of foreign affairs was informing about snipers who killed dozens of people on both sides being connected to people being in the Ukrainian government right now. Katherine Ashton – the EU minister of foreign affairs) ignored that fact completely.
New government in Ukraine officially supports neo-fascist organisations attacking Jews and Russians living in Ukraine. Among protesters significant number of people are those with criminal record and common vandals. Most people took part in protests to show their discontent with corruption that torment their country. Since the Orange Revolution in 2004 no administration took this problem seriously. Main stream media does great job showing just one side of this conflict with no reports of rallies in Yanukovych’s support in Kharkov, Donetsk or Crimea.
The divisive point in this conflict is Crimea region attack allegedly by Russian forces. The facts are plain. Over 60% of Crimea’s population is Russian, 24% is Ukrainian and Crimean Tatars –around 10%. Russian language is used by 79% of population while Ukrainian is used by only 9.6%. It is evident that Crimea was always pro-russian. In 1954 Nikita Khrushchev formally transferred Crimean peninsula from the Soviet Russia to the Ukrainian SSR.
Nevertheless, Crimea being Ukrainian for over 5 decades it was an autonomy in many aspects. Referendum planned in May was supposed to increase the level of autonomy. Referendum changed its aspect and turned into plebiscite whether citizens would like to join Russian Federation. Before the results were out prime minister of Ukraine had stated that there is no legal basis for this referendum to be taken seriously. Democracy is good but only when a result is certain and planned?
From the military standpoint Crimea is of vital importance. Sevastopol has a naval base with 25 thousand strong Black Sea Flotilla, used very successfully during Syria’s invasion.
4. Better look at the whole situation
Since collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has completed the task of becoming one and only superpower. Power as the saying goes, corrupts. Internal problem in the US are on the rise but it still wants to hold its position on the top of the hill. Threat on the horizon is Russia’s military strength, China’s growing economic advantage and Iran’s energy resources.
Russia is being surrounded with NATO bases to neutralize its military capabilities. Attempt to destabilize Syria is a move against both Russia and Iran. With Assad gone and possibility of the lease of naval base in Taurus by Russia expiring, NATO could finally dominate whole Mediterranean Sea basin. The ‘cherry’ on top is the inability to connect Gazprom’s pipelines with Syrian counterparts. Hit to an economic giant from Russia.
Syria is also important for Iran. Nowadays Iran is surrounded by the US bases and losing its regional ally could pave the way for invasion. Nuclear program threat may be good for headlines but it is the vast oil and gas resources that possible ‘democratisation’ would be about.
Subsequently taking control of Iran and checkmating Russia militarily could lead to situation where China is cut off from industrial resources (Rusia) as well as energetic resources (Russia and Iran). The United States can dictate the shape of the world politics with China unable to fully use its production capacity.
China was affected indirectly but still nonetheless, forward looking deal between China and Ukraine to lease 3 million hectares of farming soil in Ukraine (5% of Ukraine surface!) which could have ended the hunger problem in China, is now rendered null and void.
5. New Ukrainian government
“The self-proclaimed Ukrainian government was put into power by people with baseball bats.” - Edgar Savisaar President of Tallin (Estonia’s capital).
Svoboda – ultra nationalistic party notorious from attacks on Jews and Russians – is now the cradle of nearly all new ministers in Ukrainian government. Prime minister Yaceniuk’s party is closely tied to Bandera’s movement. Stepan Bandera was a collaborator with Nazis during Second World War and is responsible for mass murders (holocaust style) of Poles and Jews. First step of new regime was to annul the bill protecting national minorities. Knowing the history of Second World War, recent annulment of bill and the size of polish minority in Ukraine it is already raising red flags.
As much as Yanukovych was a puppet of Putin, new government is a puppet of the US. Difference is that new government is a threat to stability in the region and in the whole Europe. The new technocratic style prime minister wants to sign Ukraine-EU Association Agreement as soon as possible opening NATO to be installed and operate right under Putin’s nose.
It didn’t take a fortnight and new prime minister was already discussing privatization of Ukrainians pipelines for exchange of credit line saving the country from bankruptcy. Déjà vu? Indebted country is offered subsequent loans on the conditions to perpetuate its debt. The creditor gets the better side of the deal as he takes all assets in exchange and watches as the cash-starved politicians raises taxes to kill the economy. IMF will do its job and for Ukrainian people it will not mean good.
6. Russia – USA
Crimean referendum decided to join the Russian Federation and this is no surprise given anti-russian angle of new government and historical ties of this place to Russia.
Rebate reaching 33% is a history as Russia will push Ukraine into economic collapse. China will not offer any help seeing destabilised country and unpredictability of the situation.
The IMF and the insolvent EU are ready to offer helping hand. In Europe, Germany has the leading role and good relations with Russia. This being said economic sanctions will not get green light.
It does not matter how loud European politicians will scream, until this day we all are dependent on Russian gas imports and it looks like this is not about to change anytime soon.
In few months an average Ukrainian will be informed by non-mainstream media about the IMF’s usurious credit line and it will be crystal clear that he was sold to the EU. New government will lose its power really fast.
The most worrying scenario is state partition. Pro-european, NATO candidate with military installations aiming at Russia and Eastern, pro-russian half.
Finally some pictures for reflection:
New government (Oleg Tiahnybok), Victoria Nuland (USA Deputy Secretary of State), Arsenij Jaceniuk, and the Mister in the back is known to us.